November 7, 2025. Beijing.

The Ministry of Commerce filed MOFCOM Announcement No. 70, suspending China's expanded rare earth export controls until November 10, 2026. The suspension followed the Xi-Trump summit in Busan. What was being suspended mattered: the October 9 Wave 2 restrictions had introduced extraterritorial provisions requiring any foreign manufacturer to obtain a Chinese export license for products containing even trace quantities of Chinese-origin rare earths — a reach of regulatory authority with no precedent in the history of rare earth policy.

The suspension gave Western manufacturers a window. It did not give them a solution.

Today is June 8, 2026. Seven months of that window have passed. Five months remain. On November 10, 2026 — 155 days from today — China's suspended controls are set to either expire and reimpose, or be extended by a diplomatic agreement that does not yet exist. Fifty-one days after that, on January 1, 2027, the Pentagon's ban on Chinese-origin magnets in defense procurement takes effect. The West faces two converging rare earth deadlines inside a 70-day corridor.

The first is about pricing power. The International Energy Agency has estimated that if China reimplemented the full suite of its existing export controls, $6.5 trillion in annual global economic output would be at risk — every sector dependent on rare earth materials, from defense to EVs to wind energy to medical imaging. The April 2025 Wave 1 controls on seven heavy rare earth elements — including terbium, dysprosium, gadolinium, and yttrium — were never suspended. Those remain fully in force today.

The second is about procurement. The FY2024 NDAA deadline requires defense contractors to show that magnets in weapons systems contain no rare earth materials mined, refined, or fabricated in China. The US currently makes less than 1% of the world's NdFeB magnets.

What this week looks like against those deadlines: IperionX (NASDAQ: IPX) released the Definitive Feasibility Study for its Titan Critical Minerals Project in Tennessee — a study funded in part by US government defense supply chain grants, confirming $813 million in after-tax NPV at a 39% IRR, with $1.9 billion in projected after-tax free cash flow and an initial 14-year mine plan producing heavy rare earth concentrate alongside titanium minerals and zircon. IperionX has received more than $60 million in US government support since 2023, and the Titan DFS was part-funded by the Pentagon's Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment program.

The rare earth window is open. It will not stay open.

IperionX (NASDAQ: IPX) released the Definitive Feasibility Study for its Titan Critical Minerals Project near Camden, Tennessee on June 4. The project sits in the McNairy Formation within the Big Sandy Critical Minerals Province — a mineral-sands deposit containing heavy rare earth concentrate, titanium minerals and zircon. Key metrics: $813 million after-tax NPV at an 8% discount rate, 39% IRR, $381 million in development capital, and a 3.6-year after-tax payback from a 14-year mine plan based entirely on Proved and Probable Ore Reserves. The DFS was part-funded by US government defense industrial base analysis grants; total US government support since 2023 exceeds $60 million. Heavy rare earth elements — including dysprosium and terbium — represent approximately 13% of TREO content by mass but over 70% of the basket's forecast value. The company plans to advance toward final investment decision.

MP Materials (NYSE: MP) selected Northlake, Texas as the site of its "10X" large-scale rare earth magnet manufacturing campus, a $1.25 billion investment on 120 acres expected to add to the company's target of 10,000 metric tons per year of NdFeB magnets. The campus sits less than 10 miles from MP's existing Independence facility in Fort Worth, which entered commercial production in 2024 and now runs at around 1,000 tons per year with a 2,000-ton expansion underway. Engineering and equipment acquisition for 10X are already underway. Commissioning is targeted for 2028. Texas is providing more than $66 million in state grants and expected to create more than 1,500 manufacturing and engineering jobs. The 10X announcement came in late February, backed by MP's 10-year Department of Defense equity partnership and $400 million investment.

Meteoric Resources (ASX: MEI) has the Brazilian Installation License for its Caldeira Rare Earth Project in Minas Gerais targeted for June 2026 — meaning the construction permit window is arriving now. Caldeira is one of the world's most advanced ionic clay rare earth developments outside China, with 1.5 billion tonnes of resource at 2,359 ppm TREO across 193 square kilometers in Minas Gerais State. Financing backing includes a non-binding US Export-Import Bank LOI for $250 million and a $50 million Letter of Support from Export Finance Australia. The pilot plant has already produced its first batch of mixed rare earth carbonate. Meteoric is targeting Final Investment Decision around mid-2026, pending the Installation License and binding financing commitments.

Thras Moraitis, CEO of Serra Verde (acquired by USA Rare Earth for $2.8 billion)
April 20, 2026

GADOLINIUM

Gadolinium is the contrast agent in roughly 30 million MRI scans performed in the United States every year. Injected as a chelate compound, it shortens relaxation time of protons near tumors and vessels — making them visible, with no widely deployed substitute. Gadolinium is also used in nuclear reactor control rods (it has the highest thermal neutron cross-section of any element) and in magnetocaloric refrigeration, where it serves as the working material for coolant-free cooling. China controls roughly 90% of global gadolinium separation. On January 1, 2026, Beijing updated its Export Licensing Catalogue to add controls on gadolinium compounds. REalloys' Defense Logistics Agency contract specifically targets US gadolinium and samarium metal production.

Myanmar's Kachin State hosts the ion-adsorption clay deposits that feed a significant portion of China's heavy rare earth separation. Ongoing conflict has disrupted mining operations, reducing Chinese refiners' access to dysprosium and terbium feedstock from this source. Rare Earth Exchanges flagged Myanmar as a growing structural risk to heavy rare earth supply in its week-ending May 30 tracker, noting that Chinese smelters have historically relied on Myanmar for a material portion of their ionic clay ore — the same deposit type that makes up projects like Meteoric's Caldeira and Serra Verde's Pela Ema.

— Rare Earth Exchanges

India and the United States signed a bilateral critical minerals framework agreement on May 26, finalized between Indian External Affairs Minister Jaishankar and US Secretary of State Rubio in New Delhi. India's national budget for FY 2026-27 introduced a policy measure to create "rare earth corridors" in four states — Odisha, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu — targeting downstream separation and magnet manufacturing. India holds the world's fifth-largest rare earth reserves but produces less than 1% of global output. The framework covers mining, processing, and supply chain collaboration.

— Al Jazeera / Indian Ministry of External Affairs

Japan's JOGMEC-backed joint venture JARE finalized an expanded agreement with Lynas Rare Earths in March, committing to buy a minimum 5,000 metric tons per year of neodymium-praseodymium oxide at a $110/kg floor price through 2038 — plus at least 50% of Lynas's heavy rare earth output. The deal also gives JARE 30% of Lynas's NdPr upside above $150/kg, capped at $10 million per year. Japan, which imports virtually all its rare earths, has built bilateral floor-price frameworks with Lynas and has committed A$370 million to Australian rare earth projects — running its own supply-security playbook.

— Reuters / Argus Media

G7 trade and foreign ministers held a preparatory online meeting in early May to frame a mid-June leaders summit expected to include critical minerals as a top agenda item. Discussions have focused on a proposed permanent secretariat — potentially housed at the IEA or OECD — to coordinate rare earth and critical mineral supply chain policies across allied nations. The initiative would create a special legal regime covering the full value chain of critical minerals, including rare earths, building on the FORGE framework launched in February.

— Reuters / Mining.com